Electoral System Referendum

Just writing down a few predictions about the referendum between MMP FPP STV SM PV.

1. I think MMP will probably win the first question

2. I think FPP will win the second question

3. I think STV will come the closest to beating FPP (despite the 'vote for change' campaign targeting SM)

4. I think that, if MMP wins the first question and there is a review, the 5% threshold will be reduced to 3 or 4%, and will generally be more proportional than the current MMP system

5. I think there will be MMP supporters who vote for FPP in the second question, despite that being their least preferred option, because they think it has the least risk of beating MMP in a second referendum

6. I think that, If MMP loses the first question, and FPP wins the second question, that FPP supporters will run a much larger and more expensive campaign in 2014, and come close to winning.

If it's not clear, I am an MMP / PR supporter. I intend to vote for MMP and for STV, because STV is the next best (proportional) option after MMP, and because it has the best chance of beating FPP.

Economy vs Election Results 1935-2008

http://www.politicaldumpground.com/2011/10/principles-or-statistics.html

So, Labour gets in when the economy is good, and National gets in when the economy is bad. How surprising.

Also, if Key stays in until growth reaches 4%, that graph will be perfectly striped ;)

NZ Post-Earthquake Demographics

data source: http://stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/SubnationalPopulationEstimates_HOTPJun11.aspx

5 days ago, Stats NZ released the first population data about a time after the Canterbury earthquakes in Feb 2011. Note that it is for June, just 4 months after the quake, and that things could have changed significantly between June and now. Here I make a few observations:

• Only 10,600 people migrated out of Christchurch (net). This in only 2.9% or 1 in 35. (it is 12,200 compared to what would be expected without the earthquakes - 3.1% or 1 in 31)
• It was mainly young people who left, 0-14 year olds decreased 7%, and 15-39 year olds decreased 3.8% in Christchurch City, older groups actually increased (whether by natural increase or inward migration).
• Using the net migration trend over the previous 4 years as a base, out of the people who left Christchurch because of the earthquake, it looks like only 28% max settled elsewhere in the South Island. 29% max moved to the North Island, and 43% min moved overseas.
• The natural increase and 'normal' migration to the South Island over a year was almost exactly canceled out by people leaving the South Island because of the earthquakes. The total population of the South Island in June 2011 was the same as a year before.
• Since the people leaving shakey town were young, the median South Islander is now 3 1/2 years older than the median North Islander, compared to 3 years in June 2010. (the median North Islander normally ages 2 months/year, but earthquake migrants actually cancelled this out for a year)

Now for a couple of things not specifically related to the earthquake:

• Out of 43 "Territorial Authorities" in the North Island, between 2006 and 2010, 30 grew in population, Horowhenua held steady, and 12 declined. This is basically a steady overall growth plus a gradual migration from the countryside to the cities.
• Out of the 23 in the South Island, all of them grew except Gore. The overall growth is slightly higher, and the urban migration is more even, so it's not as noticeable.
• In the North Island, when you take into consideration only the 0-14 year olds, only 9 Territorial Authorities grew, 1 held steady, and 33 declined. This shows a bit about the nature of the population growth.
• In the North Island excluding Auckland, there is an overall growth in population and decline in 0-14 year olds.

In this image, the dark green areas are territorial authorities with declining populations (2006-2010), the light green have growing population but declining numbers of 0-14 year olds, gray areas have steady numbers of 0-14 year olds, orange has numbers of 0-14 year olds growing at less than 1% pa, and red areas have greater than 1% pa growth in 0-14 year olds.

Silver Fern vs NZ Blue Ensign at RWC 2011

When you fly the Silver Fern flag, here is a list of the RWC 2011 teams you could be referring to:

• NZ All Blacks

When you fly the NZ national flag - the NZ Blue Ensign - here is a list of RWC 2011 teams you could be referring to, who have players or coaches from New Zealand:

• NZ All Blacks
• Manu Samoa
• Flying Fijians
• Tongan Sea Eagles
• Japanese Cherry Blossoms
• England national rugby union team
• Wales national rugby union team
• Canadian Canucks
• Australian Wallabies
• Romanian Oaks
• Ireland national rugby union team
• USA Eagles

In fact, there are only 8 teams you are NOT supporting when you fly the NZ Blue Ensign: Scotland, France, Italy, Georgia, South Africa, Namibia, Argentina, Russia.

This is (one reason) why people use the Silver Fern flag at the RWC and not the NZ flag. It doesn't mean they have adopted a different flag for New Zealand - just for a rugby team.

Fashion Police Bill 2.0

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/5102271/Govt-to-back-ban-on-gang-patches

Someone else (Political Dumpground) has already written something so similar to my own feelings on this, that I won't bother writing my own piece.

The main area of difference is that I think the first bill, banning fashion crimes in the town formerly known as Wanganui, and the new bill, banning fashion crimes in buildings the govt owns or rents on your behalf, probably DO in fact have the potential to permit the govt of the day to commit "serious breaches of freedom of expression". This is mainly due to the inevitable discrepancy between "organizations who have no other purpose than conspiracy to commit crime" and all groups that may fall under the scope of the law.

MMP Scottish Style: Why do Scots Call 44% a Majority?

Last thursday, 5 May, Scotland elected 129 MSPs. Scottish elections use MMP - the same system as we are familiar with in New Zealand - but not the same MMP. In the Scottish election, the SNP won a 53.5% majority of seats with 44% of the vote. (representing 47.2% of party votes for the 5 elected parties and 1 elected independent, 47.7% of the party votes for just the 5 parties which got over 4% and 50.1% of the party votes for just the 4 parties which got over 5%)

Coming soon: An analysis of the Scottish election under various subtly different types of MMP.

Some summary: (detail to come later)

System (variations of MMP)	Used in	MSPs
		SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Greens	Other	Total
D'Hondt, No Overhang, no exclusion, Regions	Scotland	69	37	15	5	2	1	129
Same only with St Laguë		64	34	15	7	7	2	129
St Laguë, Overhang, 5% exclusion, no Regions	New Zealand	64	39	18	8			129
D'Hondt, No Overhang, no exclusion, only 4 Regions	Scotland*	64	38	15	7	4	1	129
St Laguë, Overhang, Scandinavian exclusion**, no Regions	My Ideal System	58	35	16	7	6	7	129
Exact Proportion to Votes		56.8	33.9	15.9	6.7	5.6	10.0	129

* - This is if each Region was merged with one of its neibours, i.e. Region 1: Highlands & Islands plus North East, Region 2: Mid & Fife plus Central, Region 3: Glasgow plus West, Region 4: Lothian plus South

** - where the first quotient is 1.4 in stead of 1. The following quotients remain at 3, 5, 7 etc.

Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two Music Video

The quality of this is just impressive. I already agreed with the message, but to come up with all those succinct yet poetic soundbites? I don't know how they do it. A definite improvement over the first one (which i also think is good), though they used the "hair of the dog" line in both videos.

Also liked the "Hayek splosives" line, and the court/inquiry theme.

Found at Not PC